The tightening of production licenses and the reduction of subsidies for car purchases will completely abolish subsidies by 2020. Will changes in China's new energy vehicles from the production end to the demand end lead to a significant contraction in the new energy automobile market? What will happen to the new energy automobile industry in the future?
Since the beginning of this year, the examination and approval of new energy vehicle production has been accelerated. Recently, Guoneng New Energy and Yundu New Energy were separately approved. At this point, the first batch of 10 new energy vehicle production licenses all landed.
In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the four ministries and commissions of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Circular on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles." According to the New Deal, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 20% from 2016, and local financial subsidies may not exceed 50% of central bicycle subsidies.
Difficult to get a license plate, increase the production threshold
Before the company won new energy and Yundu New Energy, eight companies have obtained licenses. They are Beiqi New Energy, Changjiang Automobile, Great Wall Huaguan, Chery New Energy, Minan Automobile, Wanxiang Group, and Jiangling New. Energy, Chongqing Jinkang.
The 10 new energy automobile manufacturers that got their licenses, regardless of their origins from OEMs, parts factories, or multi-sector forces, have all acquired the pedigree and related production experience of the automotive industry. In contrast, although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the Regulations on the Administration of New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers and Product Access (Revised Consultation Draft) in August 2015, Internet companies have set up factories one after another. However, at present, none of them has obtained production qualifications.
It is understood that there are currently more than 20 new energy automobile companies that are currently waiting in line for review, or whose prototypes are being tested and passed tests.
According to Lu Qun, the chairman of the promising automobile who has already obtained a license, although it is possible to declare all vehicle manufacturers on July 11, 2015 according to common sense, the relevant ministries and commissions need to provide a complete set of application documents for the application of the reporting company. It takes a long time to prepare, including a large number of tests and test reports. The reporting party must first create 15 prototypes and conduct 30,000 km of actual road tests. At the same time, it should go to the specialized testing department to test. After passing tests, side collisions, and rear collisions, after obtaining a qualified test report, With other related documents, this series of processes is almost impossible to complete within 7 months.
Responsible person in charge to respond to reporters on LeTV's application for new energy vehicle production license progress, said that LeTV is currently in accordance with the provisions of relevant state departments to actively prepare materials for the early access to new energy vehicle production license, should be "a small problem."
It now appears that China's access threshold for new energy vehicle production qualifications is relatively high. Wang Binggang, head of the supervision consulting group for national energy conservation and new energy automobile major projects of the National “863” Program, told the reporter: “Comparing with foreign countries, the access threshold for new energy vehicles in China is relatively high, but this cannot guarantee that the development of new energy vehicles will be smooth Conversely, market supervision requires the state to pay more attention to punishing enterprises that have obtained qualifications but whose products are not up to standard, and ensure the healthy development of the new energy vehicle market."
Subsidy retreats, and buyer's cost increases
Under the policy subsidies, the development of new energy vehicles in China is in full swing. “In 2016, the sales of new energy vehicles were 507,000 vehicles, which ranked the first in the world in terms of sales and sales for two consecutive years.” Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said that the cumulative number of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 1 million, accounting for the global market. 50% of the total quantity, of which pure electric vehicles occupy the bulk.
According to data from the Automobile Industry Association, the growth of China's new energy vehicles last year showed a trend of low and high. The net profits announced by 15 new energy auto companies are expected to increase by more than 30%; 7 companies are expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 100%. At the end of the year, using a single word to summarize the performance of auto companies, it is an "explosion."
However, according to the New Deal, taking Beijing as an example, last year, electric vehicles with a mileage of more than 250 kilometers were levied. The state supplemented 55,000 yuan, and Beijing added 55,000 yuan. This year, the same car, "national compensation" dropped to 44,000 yuan, "topping up" only 22,000 yuan, a lot of 买 4.4 million to buy a car.
Due to policy adjustments, the prices of automotive products have also changed accordingly. BYD's new energy system has implemented a round of price adjustment during the Spring Festival. The "Qin" and "Tang" products with better sales volume have been adjusted to a price of RMB 176,000 and RMB 246,800, respectively, which were higher than the price before the adjustment. yuan. Geely emgrand EV also rose by 10,000 yuan compared with last year.
The industry judges that although prices of some new energy automotive products are now adjusted, the production and sales of new energy vehicles may experience some decline in the first quarter of this year. However, in the long run, the growth of China's new energy vehicles will remain stable.
Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, pointed out that in the event that the subsidies for new energy vehicles have been reduced, other policy support measures including carbon quotas will continue to increase. After the subsidy is cancelled, the concessions are still needed, such as bridge tolls, tolls, and taxes are all feasible.
